Global Probabilistic Multi-Hazard Risk (GIRI)
The hazard indicators in OmniRisk are derived from the Global
Infrastructure Risk Model and Resilience Index (GIRI), developed by a international
consortium led by INGENIAR CAD/CAE LTDA. (Bogotá), the University of Geneva
(UNIGE), the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (NGI), and the
CIMA Research Foundation for the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure
(CDRI) Flagship Report. GIRI is the first global catastrophe risk assessment framework grounded in
random sets theory to evaluate multi-hazard risks and climate change non-stationarity.
🌋 Earthquake PGA
Source: GIRI Global Seismic Hazard Model developed by
INGENIAR CAD/CAE Ltda. (Cardona et al., 2023). Evaluates Peak Ground Acceleration
(PGA) in Gal (cm/s²) for multiple return periods (250y, 475y, 975y, 1500y, 2475y) representing the
10% probability of exceedance in 50 years (for 475y), modeling regional tectonic slip rates and
crustal seismicity.
🌊 Pluvial Flooding
Source: GIRI Global Flood Hazard Model developed by the
CIMA Research Foundation (Alfieri et al., 2023). Inundation depth (cm) mapped at 3
arc-second (~90m) resolution for return periods from 10y to 1000y. Uses the
Continuum semi-physically based rainfall-runoff-routing distributed hydrological
model forced by W5E5 historical meteorology (1979–2016) and future climate projections from the
ISIMIP3b dataset (IPSL-CM6A-LR model) for SSP1-2.6 (low emission) and SSP5-8.5 (high emission)
scenarios.
🏔️ Landslide Susceptibility
Source: GIRI Landslide Hazard Model developed by the
Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (NGI) (Palau et al., 2023). Mapped at 3 arc-second
(~90m) resolution. Susceptibility is computed probabilistically by combining four local factors:
slope angle (derived from MERIT-Hydro DEM and reclassified up to 50°), lithology (rasterized from
the Global Lithological Map - GLiM), land cover/vegetation (ICDR Land Cover 2020), and soil moisture
conditioning (W5E5/IPSL-CM6A-LR for rainfall-induced and ERA5 climatology for earthquake-induced).
Terrain is classified into 5 susceptibility classes from Class 1 (Very Low) to Class 5 (Very High).
Rainfall-induced susceptibility corresponds to baseline, SSP1-2.6, and SSP5-8.5 futures, while
earthquake-induced susceptibility is stationary.
🌀 Cyclone Wind Speed
Source: GIRI Cyclone Hazard Model developed by
INGENIAR and CSIRO. Maximum wind speeds (km/h) for return periods
from 25y to 250y, modeling historical tropical cyclone track climatology and warm sea-surface
temperature (SST) thermodynamic scaling to project wind loading changes.
🏜️ Drought Duration
Source: GIRI Drought Model developed by the
CIMA Research Foundation. Evaluates standard soil moisture anomalies (SMA-01),
precipitation indexes (SPI-06), and soil indexes (SSI-01) representing the average duration of
agricultural and meteorological droughts in months/year. Future projections compare W5E5 historical
baseline to IPSL-CM6A-LR SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 pathways.
🌊 Tsunami Exposure
Source: GIRI Global Tsunami Model developed by
INGENIAR. Mapped probabilistic coastal tsunami wave heights (m) using ocean
subduction zone earthquake scenarios to lookup heights at the nearest coastline.
🌊 Coastal Storm Surge
Source: GIRI Storm Surge Model developed by
INGENIAR. Extreme storm surge run-up wave heights (m) for return periods from 10y
to 1000y, incorporating localized sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios under future climate change
projections.
🔥 Wildfire Exposure
Source: NASA GEOS-5 Fire Weather Index (FWI) monthly dataset for the year 2025. Evaluated using the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) at 0.25° latitude by 0.3125° longitude resolution. The dashboard classifies risk based on the peak monthly maximum FWI across the year to capture the worst-case fire weather conditions during the summer season, while the report also evaluates annual average and median FWI values.
🥵 Extreme Heat Exposure
Source: VITO Climate Change Service Extreme Heat Hazard Dataset. Evaluates Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) values in °C for return periods of 5 years (RP5), 20 years (RP20), and 100 years (RP100) using extreme value statistics (Generalized Extreme Value distribution) from historical temperature and humidity time series.